Good Bets

As founders, how do we make better bets?

I recently got invited to a dinner featuring ​Annie Duke -author, speaker, and former professional poker player- who now consults on decision-making under uncertainty.

(If you haven’t read her book Thinking in Bets, do it.)

The invite got me thinking:

Why do I love Annie Duke’s work so much?

Because thinking in bets is exactly what startup financial modeling is.

When you're building a financial model, you’re creating a decision map.

Your assumptions are the best information you have right now, or what you’re confident estimating,

And the model lays out how those facts relate to each other to produce a predicted outcome.

When you make a move based on your model, you’re placing a bet.

A good bet, grounded in the information you have today.

And that’s the real value of a model:

Not perfect prediction, but decision clarity.

Will the outcome always be what you expected? No.

But if your assumptions were thoughtful and the model sound, then it was still the right move.

Because the power of modeling - like Annie Duke’s philosophy - isn’t in being certain;

It’s in being deliberate.

In a world full of unknowns, a good model helps you bet smarter.

And betting smarter is how you win.

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